Quadro normativo e scenari attesi al 2020 per l'energia in Italia

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Rinnovabili 2020
di Felice Lucia

L’Italia risulta tra i paesi europei più dipendenti dall’estero per l’approvvigionamento energetico, con una quota di importazioni che supera l’80% del fabbisogno nazionale. Data l’assenza del nucleare, il percorso possibile verso la decarbonizzazione dell’economia passa attraverso tre strade: (i) efficienza energetica; (ii) uso sempre maggiore dell’elettricità nell’industria, nei trasporti e nel termico; (iii) impiego crescente delle fonti rinnovabili nella generazione elettrica. Attualmente, il mix energetico dell’Italia è dominato dai combustibili fossili: petrolio e gas naturale coprono insieme quasi l’80% del consumo finale di energia, mentre la quota di rinnovabili è salita all’11,5% nel 2011 (dal 5,5% nel 2006). Con riferimento al mix elettrico, il combustibile principale è il gas, che genera oltre la metà dell’elettricità totale prodotta, mentre le rinnovabili si collocano al secondo posto, con l’idroelettrico che ne rappresenta i due terzi. Il risultato di questa combinazione energetica sono prezzi dell’energia mediamente superiori ai concorrenti europei.

Il nuovo decennio si è aperto però con dinamiche che anticipano una fase di cambiamento: la crescita delle fonti rinnovabili intermittenti (fotovoltaico ed eolico); il termoelettrico, invece, è risultato in diminuzione, a seguito delle sfavorevoli condizioni di mercato e a dismissioni di vecchi impianti, solo in minima parte compensate dalle nuove entrate in esercizio.

L’evoluzione del mix produttivo nei prossimi anni sarà strettamente condizionata alle politiche e agli obiettivi comunitari e nazionali in materia di energia e cambiamenti climatici; le principali direzioni di sviluppo, tuttavia, sono state in parte già definite nel Piano di Azione Nazionale per le energie rinnovabili (PAN) del 2010 e nella Strategia Energetica Nazionale (SEN) del marzo 2013. Quest’ultima, in realtà, è al momento solo un documento di indirizzo delle principali scelte strategiche del paese, ma è priva di un sostegno normativo per la sua attuazione. In particolare, nella SEN vengono annunciati obiettivi al 2020 che superano quelli originari della PAN, ossia:

- forte impulso all’efficienza energetica, tramite normative su standard di apparecchiature ed edifici e revisione degli incentivi, che assorbirà una parte importante dell’atteso aumento del consumo interno lordo, consentendo un risparmio energetico del 24% rispetto al 2009 (20% nel PAN);

- quota delle FER sui consumi finali lordi di energia al 19-20% (17% nel PAN);

- quota delle FER sui consumi finali lordi di elettricità al 35-38% (26% nel PAN).

Le stime REF-E sulle tendenze evolutive nel settore elettrico e il relativo mix energetico segnalano che il raggiungimento degli obiettivi 2020 è possibile. Nel breve-medio periodo (2014-2020), infatti, lo scenario REF-E sconta un aumento della capacità elettrica di quasi il 3,5% rispetto al 2013; la quota di fonti fossili è attesa ridursi ancora, a seguito di una sostanziale assenza di nuovi investimenti e alla progressiva dismissione di vecchi impianti; al contrario, le fonti rinnovabili sono attese in crescita (+37% circa per le fonti diverse dall’idroelettrico e +46% per il geotermico). Più incerte appaiono invece le direzioni di sviluppo nel lungo periodo (2035), in quanto condizionate a due ipotesi divergenti rispetto agli obiettivi della Tabella di marcia al 2050: il raggiungimento al 100% dei target ovvero il mantenimento della rotta 2020, che implica ancora un’importante dipendenza dalle fonti fossili nel sistema. Nel primo caso, le rinnovabili rappresenterebbero circa il 76% del parco elettrico installato in Italia; nel secondo la quota scenderebbe intorno al 58%.

fonte: UniCredit, "Rapporto infrastrutture", dicembre 2013

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